India’s Spice Export Evolution Through a Data-Driven Analysis of Trends and Growth from 2020 to 2025

Abstract

India ranks among the major spice exporters in the world; however, there are changes in the quantity of exports, market demands, pricing trends, and competition, among others, making it difficult to get an overview of the whole development in the spice export industry. Previous works mostly cover a single spice or a limited aspect of export development, which calls for a comprehensive analysis of export trends, growth rates, commodity performance, destinations, and future prospects during 2020–25. This study is focused on analyzing the development of India’s spice exports by examining trends, growth rates, spice-wise performance, destinations, and future growth prospects during the financial years 2020–25. A quantitative approach is used in this study, in which export data is gathered from secondary sources of information, including spice-wise export quantities and values. The collected data are analyzed through descriptive statistics, trend analysis, year-on-year growth rate, CAGR analysis, ranking analysis, profitability and ARIMA forecast modeling. There is a trend towards positive growth in the exports of Indian spices, with an increase in the value of exports of spices from 3,032,432.44 lakhs in 2020–21 to 3,914,011 lakhs in 2024-25, and it has achieved a CAGR of 6.59%. Chilies have proved to be the main contributor to exports through their high export value, and processed spices and high-end varieties have been more profitable. Correlation analysis found a very strong positive correlation between the export quantity and value of exports having a coefficient of 0.82. The future projections also suggest that there is scope for further growth, with a projected export value of 4,850,000 lakhs by 2028–29.